If Collier County condo sales are up more than 20 percent this year, why is the median price down? Both numbers come from the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® September 2026 market statistics, released October 23, which cover Collier County excluding Marco Island. Through the first nine months of 2026, condo closings rose 20.1 percent to 3,585. Over the same period the condo median fell 2.7 percent, from $450,000 to $438,000.
Normally, more buyers paying less would mean a softening market. That isn't what happened here. Over the same nine months, the average condo price rose 1.0 percent to $757,480. A median that falls while the average rises usually means the mix of sales changed, not the value of the homes. That's the story of the Naples condo market heading into season. Inside each price band, prices barely moved. The median slipped because far more inexpensive condos closed, and the middle and upper shelves were picked over while that happened.
The median is an average of the mix
NABOR breaks condo sales into price bands on a rolling 12-month basis, October 2025 through September 2026 compared with the year before. Put the sales count, the median inside each band and the current listings side by side, and the headline number comes apart.
| Condo price band | Closed sales, 12 months to Sept. 2026 | Change | Median inside band | Change | Active listings, Sept. 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 and below | 1,183 | +35.8% | $239,000 | -4.4% | 470 | +11.9% |
| $300,001 to $500,000 | 1,499 | +16.1% | $395,000 | -0.5% | 787 | -10.7% |
| $500,001 to $1.5 million | 1,355 | +12.7% | $705,000 | +0.7% | 616 | -33.7% |
| $1.5 million to $5 million | 437 | +41.9% | $2,200,000 | -0.6% | 232 | -33.1% |
| Above $5 million | 42 | 0.0% | $6,325,000 | -2.9% | 62 | -3.1% |
Between $300,000 and $5 million, the median inside each band moved less than one percent in either direction. A $700,000 condo a year ago is still roughly a $700,000 condo today. Sales under $300,000 grew from 871 to 1,183, which lifted that band from about 23 percent of all condo closings to about 26 percent. Each extra low-priced sale pulls the countywide midpoint down a little, even if nothing above it changes. The overall rolling median fell 3.3 percent to $435,000. Most of that drop comes from the shift in mix, not from any typical building losing value.
The bottom band is the only shelf getting fuller
The low end is where the supply sits as well as where the volume is. Across all condo listings in NABOR's coverage area, inventory fell 17.9 percent between September 2025 and September 2026, to 2,168. Supply dropped from 8.5 months to 5.8 months. Condos at $300,000 and below went the other way, with listings up 11.9 percent to 470. In the September market report, NABOR reported that roughly 84 percent of all active listings under $300,000 in its coverage area are condos, 470 of 555.
These units also take longer to sell. Over the 12 months through September, condos at $300,000 and below averaged 114 days on market, up from 97. The $1.5 million to $5 million band moved the opposite way, falling from 114 days to 107. So the entry level is a high-volume, slow-moving segment where buyers have choices and time. Sellers there compete with a growing pile of similar listings.
The middle shelf lost a third of its stock
The scarcity is at the other end. Condo listings between $500,001 and $1.5 million fell from 929 to 616 in a year. The $1.5 million to $5 million band fell from 347 to 232. Meanwhile, sales in those two bands rose 12.7 and 41.9 percent. More closings drawn from a shrinking shelf is a buyer's market only in the headline. A buyer who wants a two- or three-bedroom unit with a Gulf or bay view will find fewer choices this season than last.
Agents described the same pattern in the spring. In a Gulfshore Business report on the condo rebound, Naples Realtor Mari Vesci said, "The $1 million to $1.5 million is the middle comfort zone. It's where the sales are happening." The outlet reported that a $1.35 million low-rise condo in Pelican Bay's Breakwater building went pending on its first day with two backup offers. Two Bay Colony condos sold only after price adjustments, including a $3.4 million residence in the Carlysle. That split looks like the band data in miniature. Correctly priced units in the middle move quickly, and units priced above the market wait.
The same split, by ZIP code
NABOR's area pages show how the mix plays out in different parts of Naples. Each figure below covers January through September 2026 compared with the same period of 2025.
- South Naples, 34112 and 34113. Condo sales rose 15.8 percent to 753, but the median fell 11.6 percent to $340,000 and inventory fell only 8.6 percent to 500. That's the steepest median decline of the three areas and the smallest drop in supply. It is the clearest local example of an entry-level shelf that is still well stocked.
- East Naples, 34114, 34117, 34120 and 34137. Condo sales jumped 34.6 percent to 463, while the median held at $450,000, down 0.6 percent. Supply tightened from 9.5 months to 5.5. Heavy buying with a steady price is what a market looks like when the mix doesn't change.
- Naples Beach, 34102, 34103 and 34108. Condo sales rose 27 percent to 870, and the median slipped 7.3 percent to $1,052,500. Inventory fell from 717 to 564, or 6.4 months of supply. NABOR cautions that local percentages can look extreme on small samples, and that applies to this area's September median, which was down 24.1 percent. A single month of beachfront sales can swing on which buildings happened to close.
So a buyer comparing a South Naples condo with one near the beach is looking at two separate markets, with different supply and different pricing power. The countywide median doesn't describe either one.
Why the buyers came back, and the date that still matters
The condo rebound followed years in which buyers held off over insurance, association fees and the state's post-Surfside inspection rules. Gulfshore Business reported that buyers had waited to see whether milestone inspections and structural integrity reserve studies would lead to special assessments. Naples Realtor Matt Brown told the outlet that "buyers waited for the dust to settle."
For many buildings, those rules still carry a live deadline. Under section 718.112 of the Florida Statutes, a structural integrity reserve study is required for residential condo buildings three or more habitable stories tall. Unit-owner-controlled associations that existed on or before July 1, 2022 had to finish one by December 31, 2025. An association whose milestone inspection is due by December 31, 2026 may do both together, but the study can't be finished later than December 31, 2026. The statute also bars associations from voting to underfund the items the study covers in budgets adopted on or after December 31, 2024. Those reserves can be funded through regular assessments, special assessments, loans or lines of credit. The state condominium division's inspection guidance explains that a study showing insufficient reserves can lead an association to levy assessments or borrow to meet its funding schedule.
A proposal to ease these rules didn't pass. SB 722 would have raised the study requirement to buildings six stories or taller, but it died in committee on March 13, 2026.
Here's what that means for this season. In a three-story-plus building that is pairing its milestone inspection with its reserve study, the study may land right after closing. The association's documents may show where that building stands, and a buyer can ask for them before signing. This post is general information, not legal or financial advice. Confirm how these rules apply to a specific building with a Florida real estate attorney or your financial advisor.
Financing affects the low end differently, too. Mike Hughes of Downing-Frye Realty said in NABOR's September release that rates are now over 7 percent. He added that the share of cash deals is rising "not because there are more cash buyers. It is because we have fewer buyers financing home purchases." Sub-$300,000 condos are the price point where a mortgage buyer is most likely to be shopping. Their sellers feel the higher rates more than sellers in the $1.5 million band do.
Quick answers
Are Naples condos getting cheaper? Inside most price bands, not by much. Over the 12 months through September 2026, band medians from $300,000 to $5 million moved less than one percent. The countywide median fell mostly because more low-priced units sold.
Where do buyers have the most room to negotiate? In the band where listings are growing and units sit longest. As of September 2026, that was condos at $300,000 and below, with 470 listings and an average of 114 days on market over the prior 12 months.
What's the most recent data available? NABOR's September 2026 report, released October 23. Its figures reflect Southwest Florida MLS data current as of October 10, 2026.
If you're shopping for a Naples condo this season, whether it's a beach-area residence or a lock-and-leave unit for winter, Sara Sells SWFL can pull the price-band and building-level picture for the exact units on your list, in English or en français. Let's find your dream home today, priced on what's actually selling.
